578
FXUS63 KGRB 100831
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
231 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow is expected today and tonight with the highest
  amounts in far eastern Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisories have
  been issued for far northeast and east-central Wisconsin with a
  Winter Storm Warning for Door County.

- There is a chance of light snow accumulations across northern
  Wisconsin Sunday night.

- Additional snow accumulations are possible late Monday night
  into Wednesday.

- After a brief cool down over the weekend, temperatures will
  rebound to above normal early next week, then fall again into
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Snowfall Today and Tonight...

Models have come into better agreement regarding the phasing of
the northern and southern stream systems across the western Great
Lakes today. There will be an initial push of moisture and snow
from the west and south this morning, which will lift northeast
this afternoon, then pivot back south this evening and into the
overnight hours. Although much of east-central Wisconsin will see
a reprieve from the snow this afternoon, another push of snow will
impact central and north-central Wisconsin along with the pivot
zone across Door and Marinette counties.

Snowfall amounts will generally be 0.5 to 2 inches across much of
the area today and tonight. much of east-central and northeast
Wisconsin will likely see 2 to 4 inches, with Door County getting
around 6 inches, especially in the northern portion of the county
in the pivot zone of the snow. Vilas County could also see 2 to 3
inches with some assistance from Lake Superior. NBM probabilities
are 50-60% for exceeding 4 inches across east-central and far
northeast Wisconsin, with around 50% of exceeding 6 inches for
Door County.

Given the increased confidence and NBM probabilities, will issue
a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of east-central Wisconsin
for the initial push of snow this morning into the early
afternoon. Given the break in the snow this afternoon and
additional amounts this evening of only a half inch or so will not
carry the headline into the evening. Farther north will keep the
same timing for southern Oconto County for the same reasons in a
Winter Weather Advisory but will issue a Winter Weather Advisory
for Marinette County through midnight as they are most likely to
not see a significant break in the snowfall given the proximity to
the region where the snowband will pivot.

Despite only a 50% chance of exceeding 6 inches with the NBM,
there are enough models that generate 6 inches or more of snow
across Door County during this event. Also, since Door County, and
especially northern Door County, will be in the pivot zone for
the entire event confidence is higher than the NBM in snowfall
amounts exceeding 6 inches. Therefore, will issue a Winter Storm
Warning for Door County through early Sunday morning as most areas
will not see a break in the snowfall.

Forecast beyond Saturday Night...

A weak clipper system will brush through northern Wisconsin Sunday
night, and could bring light accumulations and slippery roads
across the area. A second stronger clipper arrives late Monday
night and impacts the region through Wednesday. Accumulating snow
is expected over much of the forecast area through Tuesday night,
with additional accumulations due to lake- effect expected over
north-central Wisconsin on Wednesday. Yet another system arrives
Thursday night into Friday; however, NWP models show quite a bit
of difference in the track of this low through the region.

Temperatures cool down a bit this weekend, then warm to above
normal again early next week. A decent surge of colder air and
gusty north winds follows the midweek clipper system, leading to
cooler temperatures for the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 945 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Patches of MVFR clouds are hanging tough across far northeast WI.
Meanwhile, MVFR clouds are expanding and spreading north across
southeast WI. And a clipper system is producing a band of light
snow with IFR visibilities over Minnesota this evening.

Based on the trends above, trended earlier bringing in MVFR
ceilings to east- central WI overnight. Will start flight
conditions as MVFR at TAF start time as low clouds continue to
expand.

The clipper remains on track to bring light snow to the region,
starting around 11-12Z at the TAF sites. Flight conditions will
likely drop to IFR as this occurs, but a brief period of LIFR is
possible over east-central WI on Saturday morning. The heaviest
snow will be over the lakeshore where there is a 50-60% chance of
2 inches or more of accumulations.

The snow will diminish at most locations except for northern Door
county by midday Saturday. Periods of light snow and and flurries
will then move back into north-central and northeast WI from mid
to late afternoon and continue through the end of the taf period.

Northerly low level wind shear is forecast to develop across
north-central (RHI/AUW/CWA) TAF sites after 03Z Sun.

Light winds tonight will become northwest on Saturday, with gusts
to 20 kts in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight CST
tonight for WIZ013-073.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM this morning to 3 AM CST Sunday
for WIZ022.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
afternoon for WIZ039-040-049-050-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......MPC

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion