580
FXUS63 KGRB 241110
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
610 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Freeze Warning continues for east-central Wisconsin this
  morning, likely ending the growing season.

- Below normal temperatures today followed by a slow warming
  trend into the weekend.

- Small chances of rain (15-25%) added to the forecast for
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Saturday

A deep eastern North America trough axis is currently positioned
across the eastern Great Lakes, maintaining cyclonic flow over
northeast Wisconsin this morning. Early morning temperatures range
from the middle 20s in Laona to the lower 40s at Oshkosh. With
stratocumulus clouds slowly breaking up over the area,
temperatures could still fall quickly at the warmer locations over
the Fox Valley. No change to the Freeze Warning, which remains in
effect until 9 am CDT. Upstream, high pressure is centered over
the northern Mississippi Valley under clear skies. A compact
shortwave with near-normal precipitable water and high cloud bases
is moving across southeast Saskatchewan. Forecast concerns
largely revolve around temperatures and light rain chances into
Saturday.

Precipitation: High pressure will move across the area today.
Lingering stratocumulus clouds are expected over far northern and
central Wisconsin this morning. This scattered to broken cloud
deck is anticipated to gradually erode or depart this afternoon.
Isolated to scattered fair weather clouds may briefly develop over
northeast WI where skies are currently clear late this morning
before dissipating by mid-afternoon. Mid and high clouds will
increase and lower from west to east tonight as the compact
shortwave moves toward northwest Wisconsin. A slight chance of
light rain or sprinkles (15-25% chance of precipitation) is
forecast to arrive after 5 AM CDT Saturday and continue through
the rest of Saturday morning in north-central Wisconsin
(Rhinelander, Antigo, Wausau area). The drier airmass over eastern
Wisconsin should keep the forecast dry tonight but will bring a
chance of sprinkles on Saturday.

Temperatures:  A slight warming trend begins today, with high
temperatures ranging from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday are generally expected to be in the upper 40s to lower
50s across the forecast area, which is cooler than the previous
forecast.

Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday

Relatively low-impact weather is expected to persist from this
weekend through the middle of next week.

Precipitation: Dry weather remains forecast for the area on
Sunday. Then energy moving out of the western U.S. trough could
potentially develop a closed upper low over the Great Lakes in the
Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, when rain chances return to the
area. Confidence with the evolution of this system is low.

Temperatures: A general warming trend continues into the start of
the long-term period, with temperatures peaking on Sunday. Highs
on Sunday are forecast to reach the mid-50s across the area.
Temperatures will then cool slightly with the arrival of the next
system early next week.

Boating hazards: Broad low pressure moving into the Northern Great
Plains on Sunday will result in breezy southeast winds (10 to 20
knots) over Lake Michigan from Sunday through at least Tuesday.
This persistent onshore flow is expected to create hazardous
conditions for small craft.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Pesky scattered MVFR ceilings over north-central WI will
transition to widespread VFR this afternoon as high pressure
builds into the region. Overnight, a slight chance for light
precip returns to the northern terminals (KRHI, KAUW, KCWA).

Through 16Z Fri:
Intermittent MVFR ceilings are possible at KRHI. Clear to
scattered clouds around 3500-4500 ft elsewhere.

16Z Fri through 00Z Sat:
Coverage of fair weather clouds may increase from 16-18z. But dry
air will erode strato-cumulus in the afternoon. All terminals
improve to VFR conditions by mid- afternoon, most becoming SKC by
early evening. Winds remain NW at 8-12 KT with diminishing gusts.
No weather expected.

00Z Sat Through 12Z Sat:
VFR conditions to hold. A shortwave brings increasing clouds
overnight. For KRHI/KAUW/KCWA, cloud bases lower to near 5000 ft
by the end of the TAF period. A low (15-25%) chance of light rain
(-RA) develops at these northern sites after 10Z Sat. Confidence
is high for VFR over eastern WI.

Outlook:
VFR expected on Sat-Sun.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ038>040-
048>050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......MPC

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion