635
FXUS63 KGRB 061104
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
504 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain is in effect this
  morning. Potential for at least a glaze of ice ranges from
  40-100% across most of the forecast area.

- Next chance for widespread precipitation is forecast for
  Thursday afternoon through Saturday. This system may initially
  bring rain, then a wintry mix, before transitioning to mainly
  snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

The thin area of freezing rain/freezing drizzle/rain from Wood
County through Manitowoc is slowly lifting north early this
morning. Local law enforcement indicate roads in the areas where
this is falling are ice covered and slippery. Although this area
is a fairly small right now, upstream radar observations indicate
another area of wintry precipitation upstream across eastern
Minnesota/western Wisconsin associated with a mid level shortwave
making its way eastward. CAMs models indicate this area of
precipitation will make its way into central Wisconsin just after
daybreak, then through north-central and east-central Wisconsin
later this afternoon and exiting the lakeshore counties this
evening. Model soundings indicate precipitation type will mainly
be liquid, with sub-freezing surface temperatures causing
precipitation to fall as freezing rain and drizzle across much of
the area this morning. As surface temperatures warm throughout the
morning, it will slowly transition to rain and drizzle with the
daytime and road treatments limiting impacts by the time the
afternoon arrives. HREF probabilities are still 30-60% for
exceeding 0.1" of freezing rain across much of the current
advisory area. Therefore, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory
headlines in their current locations through noon as this is when
the most impacts are expected.

A cold front will track through the region this afternoon and this
evening, bringing the aforementioned wintry weather through the
area. However, unlike this morning there will be deeper moisture
so a wintry mix is possible across the north as the cold front
moves through. Therefore, any wintry mix with the cold front
should not have a high impact across the region.

A dry and warmer stretch is expected Wednesday and Thursday
morning with high temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s, minimal
wind, and partly cloudy skies.

Another pair of systems is progged to impact the Upper Midwest
Thursday afternoon through Saturday, which may bring two batches
of precip to the forecast area. However, lots of uncertainty
surrounding the details. Temperatures will still be fluctuating
above and below freezing, so a mix of snow and rain would be
expected. Freezing rain/icing potential looks less likely with
this event. Recent model trends are a bit quicker and stronger
with the first system, with precipitation making it into the
forecast area as soon as Thursday afternoon and the second one
tracking through on Saturday. Both of these systems have the
potential to bring several inches of accumulating snow as they
track through with the exact tracks of the lows determining how
much snow falls. Right now the best chance for accumulating snow
is Saturday with a 40-60% chance for an inch or more of snow
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 504 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Low clouds and visibility restrictions are becoming ubiquitous
across the area this morning as conditions settle into IFR/LIFR as
low level moisture increases. The narrow band of frontogenetic
forcing has become more diffuse as another area upstream across
western Wisconsin is slowly making its way eastward associated
with a mid level shortwave. Freezing rain and rain will make its
way eastward through the area throughout the day as the shortwave
tracks east with the best chance for freezing rain across the west
with the earlier arrival, with a better chance for rain further
east as it moves through closer to late morning or early afternoon
when temperatures will be warmer. Some modest improvements in
flight conditions are expected as the precipitation ends this
evening.

Winds will be light through the TAF period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ018>020-022-
030-031-035>039-045-048-049-074.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for WIZ040-
050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion